IMF sees higher oil output in 2007-2008
Posted: 11 December 2007
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Oil exporters in the Middle East and Central Asia are expected to have pumped more crude in 2007 and output will likely be higher in 2008, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The increase will combine with a sharp rise in crude prices to boost their exports and financial reserves to their highest ever level, it said.
Their current account, the external fiscal balance, is also expected to record one of its highest surpluses during those two years although some of them are forecast to have small deficits given their high imports.
From 28.4 million barrels per day, oil production of Gulf countries and other crude producers in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected to have grown to nearly 29.2 million bpd in 2007 and is projected to rise further to around 30 million bpd in 2008, the IMF said in a report, which covered the six GCC states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and the UAE with Iran, Iraq, Algeria, Libya, Syria, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
A breakdown for key oil exporters showed some of them are expected to cut output, including Saudi Arabia , whose production will slip from around 9.2 million to 9.1 million bpd in 2007 and nine million bpd in 2008.
Iraq ’s output will remain unchanged at around two million bpd while Iran ’s production will increase from 4.1 million bpd to 4.2 million bpd and 4.3 million bpd in the same period, the report showed.
Kuwait ’s production is projected to remain at around 2.6 million bpd while crude output by the UAE is forecast to swell from 2.9 million bpd to three million bpd and 3.1 million bpd for the first time.
The report showed the increase in the combined oil production of those countries will ally with strong crude prices to boost their total exports to an all-time high of $872.8 billion in 2007 and another record of $978.7 billion in 208 compared with around $787.2 billion in 2006.
The 2007 exports are almost six times their average annual exports of $228 billion during 1998-2002, when their crude output was as low as 21.2 million bpd and crude prices ranged between $12 and $28 a barrel.
The report showed most of the increase will be in the exports of Gulf Arab states, with those by Saudi Arabia growing from $217 billion to a record $226 billion in 2007 and another peak of $245 billion in 2008.
The UAE’s exports are also expected to hit a record $165 billion in 2007 and $182 billion in 2008 to maintain its status as the region’s second largest exporter after Saudi Arabia . Kuwait ’s exports are projected to rise from around $60 billion to $63 billion and $71 billion in the same period.
Iran ’s Exports are also forecast to surge from $84 billion in 2006 to $94 billion in 2007 and $99 billion in 2008 while those by war-battered Iraq are also expected to grow from $28 billion to $32 billion and $37 billion.
The report showed the combined official financial reserves of those countries climbed to a record $531 billion last year and were expected to have reached another peak of $674 billion in 2007 and $823 billion in 2008.
Saudi Arabia , the world’s oil powerhouse, controlled more than a third of those financial reserves, with its own assets surging from $225 billion in 2006 to $277 billion in 2007 and a record $341 billion in 2008.
The reserves of most other producers were also projected to climb to a record level in 2007 and 2008 as a result of higher oil export earnings.
Strong prices and higher output have also positively effected their current account, which recorded its highest surplus of around $275 billion 2006.
The IMF expected the surplus to slip to around 264 billion in 2007 before recovering to a record $297 billion in 2008.
It showed the decline in 2007 was a result of a drop in the surplus of Saudi Arabia , Kuwait , Iraq , Algeria and other members because of higher imports.
But the projected current account surplus remains very high compared to previous years, as it is nearly eight times the 1998-2002 average annual surplus of around $32 billion. |
